Post pandemic fatigue: what are effective strategies?

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Modeling
• Public Health

Background:

• Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are crucial for controlling coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) waves.
• Public adherence to NPIs like gathering restrictions and quarantine is often suboptimal.
• Understanding COVID-19 transmission dynamics is essential for effective public health strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the effectiveness of gathering restrictions and quarantine policies for COVID-19 control.
• To analyze COVID-19 transmission dynamics using a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Hospitalized-Recovered (SEIHR) model.
• To investigate the impact of cross-boundary travellers and quarantine on disease spread in Hong Kong.

Main Methods:

• Development and analysis of a modified SEIHR mathematical model incorporating cross-boundary travellers.
• Analysis of asymptotic stability of equilibria to identify backward bifurcation phenomenon.
• Utilizing Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients (PRCCs) to assess parameter sensitivity.

Main Results:

• The SEIHR model demonstrated backward bifurcation, indicating a co-existence of disease-free and endemic equilibria.
• COVID-19 elimination is not guaranteed even with a basic reproduction number below unity.
• Transmission rates, effective contact ratios, and infection transfer rates during quarantine were identified as highly sensitive parameters.
• Effective contact ratios increased significantly from March to July 2020, suggesting pandemic fatigue and potential quarantine breaches.

Conclusions:

• Backward bifurcation poses challenges for COVID-19 elimination, necessitating sustained or adaptive NPIs.
• Transmission dynamics are highly sensitive to contact rates and quarantine effectiveness.
• Pandemic fatigue and potential infections during quarantine require careful consideration in public health policy.