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Serial cardiac biomarkers for risk stratification of patients with COVID-19
Kwaku Tawiah1, Laurel Jackson2, Catherine Omosule1
1Department of Pathology & Immunology, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO, United States.
Insights
High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hsTnI) and other biomarkers predict COVID-19 outcomes. HsTnI is the strongest predictor of mortality and intubation, supporting its use in patient triage.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Infectious Diseases
- Biomarker Research
Background:
- Elevated cardiac biomarkers are linked to adverse outcomes in COVID-19 patients.
- The prognostic value of a multimarker panel in a diverse COVID-19 population needs further investigation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the prognostic and predictive capabilities of a multimarker panel in COVID-19 patients.
- To assess the association of cardiac biomarkers with mortality and intubation risk.
Main Methods:
- Prospective assessment of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hsTnI), NT-pro B-type Natriuretic Peptide (NT-proBNP), Galectin-3 (Gal-3), and procalcitonin (PCT).
- Analysis of 4,282 serial samples from 358 hospitalized COVID-19 patients.
- Outcomes included 30-day in-hospital mortality and 10-day intubation requirement.
Main Results:
- Baseline hsTnI demonstrated the highest predictive accuracy for 30-day mortality (AUC 0.81).
- Low baseline hsTnI (<3.5 ng/L) identified patients at low risk for mortality and intubation.
- Increasing hsTnI concentrations were associated with reduced survival and increased mortality risk.
Conclusions:
- HsTnI, NT-proBNP, Gal-3, and PCT are elevated in COVID-19 patients with worse outcomes.
- HsTnI emerged as the sole independent predictor of 30-day mortality and intubation.
- The study supports the use of hsTnI for triaging COVID-19 patients.
Objectives:
Several studies have demonstrated an association between elevated cardiac biomarkers and adverse outcomes in patients with COVID-19. However, the prognostic and predictive capability of a multimarker panel in a prospectively collected, diverse "all-comers" COVID-19 population has not been fully elucidated.
Design & Methods:
We prospectively assessed high sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hsTnI), NT-pro B-type Natriuretic Peptide (NT-proBNP), Galectin-3 (Gal-3), and procalcitonin (PCT) in 4,282 serial samples from 358 patients admitted with symptomatic, RT-PCR confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Outcomes examined were 30-day in-hospital mortality and requirement for intubation within 10 days.
Results:
Baseline hsTnI had the highest AUC for predicting 30-day mortality (0.81; 95% CI, 0.73-0.88), followed by NT-proBNP (0.80; 0.74-0.86), PCT (0.77; 0.70-0.84), and Gal-3 (0.68; 0.60-0.76). HsTnI < 3.5 ng/L at baseline identified patients at low risk for in-hospital mortality (NPV 95.9%, sensitivity 97.3%) and 10-day intubation (NPV 90.4%, sensitivity 88.5%). Continuous, log-2 increases in troponin concentration were associated with reduced survival (p < 0.001) on Kaplan-Meier curves and increased risk of 30-day mortality: HR 1.26 (1.16-1.37) in univariate and 1.19 (1.03-1.4) in multivariate models. Time-varying doubling of concentrations of hsTnI and Gal-3 were associated with increased risk of 30-day mortality (adjusted HR 1.21, 1.06-1.4, and 1.92, 1.40-2.6).
Conclusion:
HsTnI, NT-proBNP, Gal-3, and PCT are elevated at baseline in patients that have worse outcomes from COVID-19. HsTnI was the only independent predictor of 30-day mortality and intubation. Time-varying, doubling in hsTnI and Gal-3 further aided in prognostication of adverse outcomes. These results support the use of hsTnI for triaging patients with COVID-19.
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