Radiomics Analysis of Computed Tomography for Prediction of Thyroid Capsule Invasion in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma:...

To investigate the application of computed tomography (CT)-based radiomics model for prediction of thyroid capsule invasion (TCI) in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC).

This retrospective study recruited 412 consecutive PTC patients from two independent institutions and randomly assigned to training (n=265), internal test (n=114) and external test (n=33) cohorts. Radiomics features were extracted from non-contrast (NC) and artery phase (AP) CT scans. We also calculated delta radiomics features, which are defined as the absolute differences between the extracted radiomics features. One-way analysis of variance and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator were used to select optimal radiomics features. Then, six supervised machine learning radiomics models (k-nearest neighbor, logistic regression, decision tree, linear support vector machine [L-SVM], Gaussian-SVM, and polynomial-SVM) were constructed. Univariate was used to select clinicoradiological risk factors. Combined models including optimal radiomics features and clinicoradiological risk factors were constructed by these six classifiers. The prediction performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

In the internal test cohort, the best combined model (L-SVM, AUC=0.820 [95% CI 0.758-0.888]) performed better than the best radiomics model (L-SVM, AUC = 0.733 [95% CI 0.654-0.812]) and the clinical model (AUC = 0.709 [95% CI 0.649-0.783]). Combined-L-SVM model combines 23 radiomics features and 1 clinicoradiological risk factor (CT-reported TCI). In the external test cohort, the AUC was 0.776 (0.625-0.904) in the combined-L-SVM model, showing that the model is stable. DCA demonstrated that the combined model was clinically useful.

Our combined model based on machine learning incorporated with CT radiomics features and the clinicoradiological risk factor shows good predictive ability for TCI in PTC.