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A simple prognostic index for hospitalized geriatric patients. A prospective study of 70 patients
Insights
A new prognostic index accurately predicts outcomes for hospitalized geriatric patients. This tool helps assess the prognosis of elderly patients, identifying those likely to be discharged versus those remaining hospitalized or deceased.
Area of Science:
- Geriatric Medicine
- Clinical Prognostics
- Healthcare Assessment Tools
Background:
- Hospitalized geriatric patients often have complex health needs.
- Accurate prognosis is crucial for effective patient management and resource allocation in elderly care.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a simple prognostic index for hospitalized geriatric patients.
- To assess the index's ability to predict patient outcomes at 3 months.
Main Methods:
- A prognostic index was created by summing scores from seven parameters: mobility, sphincter control, mental competence, feeding ability, pressure sores, medical condition, and family state.
- Seventy hospitalized geriatric patients were evaluated using this index.
- Patient outcomes (discharge, continued hospitalization, or death) were assessed after 3 months.
Main Results:
- The mean prognostic index score for discharged patients (Group 1) was 14.9 ± 3.2, significantly lower than for hospitalized or deceased patients (Group 2) at 23.5 ± 4.3 (p < 0.00001).
- A score of 17 or more demonstrated high prognostic accuracy, with a sensitivity of 92%, specificity of 83%, and predictive value of 94%.
- Eighty-three percent of Group 1 patients scored below 17, while only 8% of Group 2 patients did.
Conclusions:
- The developed prognostic index is a simple and effective tool for assessing the prognosis of elderly patients.
- This index can aid clinicians in predicting short-term outcomes for hospitalized geriatric individuals.
- The validated index supports improved clinical decision-making in geriatric care.
Abstract:
A simple prognostic index for hospitalized geriatric patients is reported herein. Seven parameters including: mobility, sphincter control, mental competence, feeding ability, presence of pressure sores, medical condition and family state were recorded in 70 patients. The sum of the scores of all parameters constituted the prognostic index. At the end of 3 months the patients were divided into two groups: 18 patients who were discharged (group 1) and 52 patients who were still hospitalized (35 cases) or had died (17 cases) (group 2). The mean index for group 1 was 14.9 +/- 3.2 (mean +/- SD), while that for group 2 was 23.5 +/- 4.3 (p less than 0.00001). Eighty-three percent of the patients in group 1 and only 8% of those in group 2 had scored lower than 17. Thus, the score of 17 or more had a prognostic sensitivity of 92% and a specificity of 83%. The predictive value of indices of 17 or more was 94%. The index described offers therefore a simple and relatively accurate tool for the assessment of the prognosis of elderly patients.