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Extinction and Spatial Structure in Simulation Models.

Kerstin Wiegand1, Klaus Henle2, Stephen D Sarre3

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|June 15, 2022
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Spatial structure in population viability models significantly reduces population persistence. High-density mortality, not the Allee effect, is the primary driver of this reduced persistence in spatially structured populations.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Conservation Biology
  • Population Dynamics

Background:

  • Population viability analyses (PVA) often overlook within-population spatial structure.
  • Spatial structure can influence population persistence by affecting movement and density-dependent mortality.
  • The role of spatial structure and the Allee effect in PVA requires further investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the relevance of spatial structure to population persistence.
  • To compare the predictive power of spatially structured versus unstructured models.
  • To assess the contribution of the Allee effect and density-dependent mortality to population persistence.

Main Methods:

  • Developed and compared three models for the arboreal gecko Oedura reticulata.
  • Model 1: Spatially structured with density-dependent mortality at low and high densities.
  • Model 2: Spatially structured with Allee effect removed.
  • Model 3: Spatially unstructured with no density-dependent mortality.

Main Results:

  • Spatially structured populations exhibited reduced persistence compared to nonspatial models.
  • Increased mortality at high densities due to territory acquisition difficulties significantly reduced persistence.
  • The Allee effect contributed minimally to the reduction in population persistence.

Conclusions:

  • Spatial structure is a critical factor influencing population persistence.
  • Spatially structured models provide more realistic estimates of extinction risk.
  • High-density mortality costs are more influential than the Allee effect in spatial models.