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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Sep 8, 2025

A Trap-Vaccinate-Release Protocol for Immunization of Skunks and Additional Rabies Vectors Against Rabies

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Land reversion and zoonotic spillover risk.

John E Vinson^1,2, Nicole L Gottdenker^2,3, Luis Fernando Chaves⁴

¹Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA.

Royal Society Open Science

|June 16, 2022

Summary

Forest regeneration after deforestation impacts zoonotic spillover risk. The rate of regeneration and habitat-specific risks determine overall risk, highlighting the need for wildlife management in secondary forests.

Keywords:

disease management land reversion land-use change zoonotic spillover

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Area of Science:

Ecology
Epidemiology
Conservation Biology

Background:

Deforestation disrupts wildlife dynamics and human-wildlife interactions, potentially increasing the risk of zoonotic disease spillover.
The transition from deforested areas back to forest (regeneration) can alter species composition and, consequently, the trajectory of spillover risk.

Purpose of the Study:

To mathematically model land-use change and understand how forest regeneration influences landscape-level zoonotic spillover risk.
To explore scenarios where regenerating forests have varying spillover risks relative to cleared land and mature forests.

Main Methods:

Development of a mathematical model simulating land-use change dynamics.
Application of the model to scenarios with differing spillover risks in deforested, regenerating, and mature forest habitats.
Analysis of factors influencing cumulative and instantaneous spillover risk during forest succession.

Main Results:

Landscape-level spillover risk is determined by forest regeneration rates, the relative spillover risk of regenerating versus deforested land, and the speed of recovery to mature forest characteristics.
When regenerating forests have low spillover risk, cumulative risk decreases, but peak instantaneous risk occurs earlier.
High spillover risk in both regenerating and cleared habitats leads to persistently high landscape-level risk, particularly with rapid abandonment and slow regeneration.

Conclusions:

Forest regeneration dynamics significantly influence zoonotic spillover risk.
Proactive wildlife management strategies and heightened awareness of human exposure risks in regenerating forests are crucial for mitigating zoonotic disease emergence.