Clinical Events and Renal Function in the First Year Predict Long-Term Kidney Transplant Survival

Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at 1 year post transplantation has been shown to be a strong predictor of long-term graft survival. However, intercurrent events (ICEs) may affect the relationship between eGFR and failure risk.

The OPTN and USRDS databases on single-organ kidney transplant recipients from 2012 to 2016 were linked. Competing risk regressions estimated adjusted subhazard ratios (SHRs) of 12-month eGFR on long-term graft failure, considering all-cause mortality as the competing risk, for deceased donor (DD) and living donor (LD) recipients. Additional predictors included recipient, donor, and transplant characteristics. ICEs examined were acute rejection, cardiovascular events, and infections.

Cohorts comprised 25,131 DD recipients and 7471 LD recipients. SHRs for graft failure increased rapidly as 12-month eGFR values decreased from the reference 60 ml/min per 1.73 m². At an eGFR of 20 ml/min per 1.73 m², SHRs were 13-15 for DD recipients and 12-13 for LD recipients; at an eGFR of 30 ml/min per 1.73 m², SHRs were 5.0-5.7 and 5.0-5.5, respectively. Among first-year ICEs, acute rejection was a significant predictor of long-term graft failure in both DD (SHR=1.63, P<0.001) and LD (SHR=1.51, P=0.006) recipients; cardiovascular events were significant in DD (SHR=1.24, P<0.001), whereas non-CMV infections were significant in the LD cohort (SHR=1.32, P=0.03). Adjustment for ICEs did not significantly reduce the association of eGFR with graft failure.

Twelve-month eGFR is a strong predictor of long-term graft failure after accounting for clinical events occurring from discharge to 1 year. These findings may improve patient management and clinical evaluation of novel interventions.