Analysing the impact of modifiable risk factors on cardiovascular disease mortality in Brazil

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Cardiovascular Disease Research

Background:

• Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains a leading cause of mortality globally.
• Modifiable risk factors significantly influence CVD incidence and mortality rates.
• Understanding the impact of specific risk factors is crucial for effective public health interventions in Brazil.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the impact of changes in modifiable risk factors on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality across Brazilian states.
• To quantify the number of CVD deaths attributable to changes in specific risk factors between 2005 and 2017.
• To identify key risk factors requiring targeted public health strategies to reduce CVD burden.

Main Methods:

• Utilized data from the Global Burden of Diseases study and Brazilian government sources (312 state-year observations).
• Calculated Population Attributable Fractions (PAFs) to assess deaths linked to risk factor changes.
• Employed fixed-effects multivariable linear regression, adjusting for socioeconomic factors and healthcare access.

Main Results:

• Cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths decreased by 21.42% from 2005 to 2017.
• Smoking reduction prevented approximately 20,000 CVD deaths; however, increased hyperglycemia contributed to over 6,000 deaths.
• Hyperglycemia demonstrated a significantly stronger association with CVD mortality, particularly in women, independent of socioeconomic status.

Conclusions:

• Smoking cessation initiatives have been effective in preventing substantial numbers of cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths.
• Hyperglycemia presents the most detrimental association with CVD mortality in Brazil, necessitating urgent public health focus.
• Future health policies must prioritize direct interventions to lower hyperglycemia prevalence to effectively mitigate the population's CVD burden.