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A Novel Combined Nomogram Model for Predicting the Pathological Complete Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in
Xuelin Zhu1,2,3, Jing Shen1,2, Huanlei Zhang4
1Graduate School, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
Objective:
To explore the value of a predictive model combining the multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) radiomics score (RAD-score), clinicopathologic features, and morphologic features for the pathological complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in invasive breast carcinoma of no specific type (IBC-NST).
Methods:
We enrolled, retrospectively and consecutively, 206 women with IBC-NST who underwent surgery after NAC and obtained pathological results from August 2018 to October 2021. Four RAD-scores were constructed for predicting the pCR based on fat-suppression T2-weighted imaging (FS-T2WI), diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), contrast-enhanced T1-weighted imaging (T1WI+C) and their combination, which was called mpMRI. The best RAD-score was combined with clinicopathologic and morphologic features to establish a nomogram model through binary logistic regression. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated using the area under receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and calibration curve. The clinical net benefit of the model was evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA).
Results:
The mpMRI RAD-score had the highest diagnostic performance, with AUC of 0.848 among the four RAD-scores. T stage, human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2) status, RAD-score, and roundness were independent factors for predicting the pCR (P < 0.05 for all). The combined nomogram model based on these factors achieved AUCs of 0.930 and 0.895 in the training cohort and validation cohort, respectively, higher than other models (P < 0.05 for all). The calibration curve showed that the predicted probabilities of the nomogram were in good agreement with the actual probabilities, and DCA indicated that it provided more net benefit than the treat-none or treat-all scheme by decision curve analysis in both training and validation datasets.
Conclusion:
The combined nomogram model based on the mpMRI RAD-score combined with clinicopathologic and morphologic features may improve the predictive performance for the pCR of NAC in patients with IBC-NST.
