Evaluation of a pediatric asthma high-risk scoring algorithm

Identification of patients with asthma at increased risk for hospitalization and emergency department (ED) visits presents opportunity for intervention.

Retrospective analysis of computerized health plan claims data.

Texas Children's Health Plan, a large Medicaid managed care program, developed an asthma risk scoring algorithm using the clinically relevant parameters of hospitalization for asthma, ED visits for asthma, short-acting β agonist medication dispensing, inhaled corticosteroid medication dispensing, number of prescribing providers, loss to follow-up, and oral corticosteroid dispensing. The risk score performance was evaluated using 2016-2018 risk scores to predict 2017-2019 asthma hospitalizations and ED visits.

We identified 107,811 unique members aged 1 to less than 18 years with an asthma diagnosis. For those aged 3 to less than 18 years, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for risk score predicting hospitalization ranged from 0.72 to 0.79. For those aged 1 to less than 3 years, the AUC ranged from 0.65 to 0.69. Those with a risk score of 1 or greater accounted for 20% to 23% of pediatric members 3 to less than 18 years with asthma but 53% to 56% of asthma hospitalizations in the follow-up year. Sixteen to eighteen percent of those aged 3 to less than 18 years with a risk score of 9 or greater were hospitalized in the follow-up year.

Texas Children's Health Plan asthma risk score stratifies risk of asthma hospitalization and ED visits for Medicaid-insured children. The risk score performs better for children aged 3 to less than 18 years than for those aged 1 to less than 3 years.