Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics analysis and optimization prediction of urban green infrastructure: a case...

The reasonable layout of green infrastructure is conducive to the low-carbon, livable and high-quality sustainable development of cities. The framework of spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and prediction analysis of Urban Green Infrastructure (UGI) was constructed by integrating morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA) and CA-Markov in the study. We analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of UGI in Beijing from 1990 to 2019, predicted its future change trend in 2030, and put forward the optimization scheme for the ecological network of UGI. The area change of UGI presented a "V" shape from 1990 to 2019 in Beijing, and the turning point was around 2009. Its spatial distribution revealed a significant heterogeneity. The comprehensive change rate index showed a "rising and then falling" trend from 1990 to 2019. Core with an area of over 1000 km² had inclined "C" shape, connecting the north, west and south of the study area. Among the three prediction scenarios for 2030, the area of UGI under the ecological conservation priority scenario is the largest, accounting for 86.35% of the total area. The area of UGI under the economic development priority scenario is the smallest, accounting for 76.85%. The optimization of zoning and road network are effective measures to improve the connectivity of UGI in Beijing. This study is beneficial to extend the research ideas of UGI and promote sustainable urban development.