A Novel Approach to Modeling and Forecasting Cancer Incidence and Mortality Rates through Web Queries and Automated
1International Business and Economics Department, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 010374 Bucharest, Romania.
Biology
|June 24, 2022
Summary
Cancer incidence and mortality are projected to increase in Romania by 2026, highlighting the urgent need for public health system improvements. Accurate cancer projections are vital for effective policymaking and assessing health interventions.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Health Policy
Background:
- Cancer is a leading global cause of mortality, necessitating effective prevention and policy strategies.
- Romania faces higher cancer mortality rates than the EU average due to public health system inefficiencies and economic factors.
- Accurate cancer incidence and mortality projections are crucial for informed public health policymaking.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop novel models for cancer incidence and mortality in Romania.
- To forecast future cancer rates by integrating historical data with population web-search trends.
- To provide evidence for improving Romania's public health system and cancer burden management.
Main Methods:
- Utilized historical cancer statistics and population web-search data.
- Employed machine learning models, including ARIMA, TBATS, and NNAR, for forecasting web query volumes.
- Integrated NNAR model forecasts into novel incidence/mortality models.
Main Results:
- Projected increases in age-standardized total cancer incidence to 313.8 and mortality rate to 233.8 by 2026.
- These projections represent a 2% and 3% increase, respectively, compared to 2019 levels.
- Indicated a continuation of rising cancer trends in Romania.
Conclusions:
- Cancer will remain a significant public health burden in Romania without system improvements.
- Highlighted the urgent need to enhance the Romanian public health system to address the growing cancer challenge.
- Emphasized the importance of data-driven projections for public health planning and intervention assessment.
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