Spatial-Temporal Sensitivity Analysis of Flood Control Capability in China Based on MADM-GIS Model

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Geospatial Analysis
• Risk Management

Background:

• Effective flood control and risk mitigation strategies require robust evaluation tools.
• Assessing national flood defense capabilities is crucial for targeted interventions.
• Existing models may not adequately address data scarcity or discontinuity.

Purpose of the Study:

• To propose a comprehensive model for evaluating China's flood defense capability.
• To identify specific regions with varying levels of flood defense performance.
• To provide a scientifically-grounded reference for flood risk management and disaster reduction planning.

Main Methods:

• Extraction of nine key indicators (e.g., slope, precipitation intensity) from four aspects.
• Integration of the entropy weight method (Multi-Attribute Decision Making - MADM) and the improved 3D-TOPSIS method.
• Validation using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and Taylor plots.

Main Results:

• Identified strong flood defense performance in Shandong and Jiangsu provinces.
• Highlighted areas such as Guangxi, Chongqing, Tibet, and Qinghai requiring improved flood defense.
• Verified the representativity of the selected indicators and the model's problem-solving ability (ROC AUC of 70%).

Conclusions:

• The developed MADM-GIS model accurately assesses flood control capacity, even with scarce or discontinuous data.
• The study provides valuable insights for China's flood defense planning and emergency strategies.
• The model's sensitivity analysis offers a reliable tool for risk mitigation.