Assessing the Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on Road Congestion Using Microsimulation

The introduction of autonomous vehicles has been considered as a possible option for reducing traffic congestion in many transport studies. Many types of models, in particular car-following microsimulation models have been adopted in most studies. The impacts of autonomous vehicles (AVs) on congestion, however, have not yet been concluded. This could be because different researchers use different forms of car-following models to assess these impacts, or because the utilised modelling approaches and their parameters are different in different studies. In particular, two of the important parameters that are associated with car-following models are the used values for maximum acceleration and the average desired time gaps. While the values of these parameters can be adjusted and controlled by the ACC controllers in the AV, they can also be controlled by the users. Therefore, assigning unrealistic values to these parameters could well result in unrealistic conclusions. This paper investigated the impacts of the maximum acceleration and the average desired time gaps on congestion levels using the loss-time indicator. The analysis was carried out on the Hanshin expressway in Japan and was tested and assessed using the Helly (FACC) car-following microsimulation model. This includes estimating the values of the desired time gap from real traffic time-gap distributions. The Hanshin expressway is an urban toll highway of 273 km that extends from Osaka to Kobe, representing the Hanshin area in Japan. The Hanshin highway serves a huge traffic volume that consists of private and freight vehicles that operate within the Hanshin area. This area represents one of three major municipal areas in Japan including Tokyo and Nagoya. A total of 740,000 vehicles per day travel on the expressway. As a result, there is significant congestion on the Hanshin expressway. There have been various plans put in place to ease congestion ranging from building new roads to the implementation of traffic-demand-management measures. However, the predictions of the impacts of such measures do not provide any evidence that they would ease traffic congestion. Other possible measures that could be investigated for easing traffic congestion include technology-based solutions such as autonomous vehicles. The modelling results recommend that the results obtained from microsimulation models should be taken with care, and good attention should be paid to the parameters used and their values in the model. The values assigned to driving-behaviour parameters, the maximum values of acceleration, and the time-gap settings, for example, control the final outcomes of the models.