Implementation of Aging Mechanism Analysis and Prediction for XILINX 7-Series FPGAs with a 28-nm Process

Commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) with a 28-nm process have become popular devices for computing systems. Although current generation FPGAs have advantages over previous models, the phenomenon of circuit aging has become more significant with the sharp reduction in the process size of FPGAs. Aging results in FPGA performance degradation over time and, ultimately, hard faults. However, few studies have focused on understanding aging mechanisms or estimating the aging trend of 28-nm FPGAs. For this, we used a ring oscillator (RO)-based test structure to extract data and build a dataset that could be used to predict aging trends and determine the primary aging mechanisms of 28-nm FPGAs. Moreover, we proposed a correction method to correct temperature-induced measurement errors in accelerated tests. Furthermore, we employed four machine learning (ML) technologies that were based on accurate measurement datasets to predict FPGA aging trends. In the experiment, 24 XILINX 7-series FPGAs (28 nm) were evaluated for 10+ years of circuit operation using accelerated tests. The results showed that the aging effects of negative-bias temperature instability (NBTI) was the primary aging mechanism. The correction method proposed in this paper could effectively eliminate measurement errors. In addition, the minimum prediction error rate of the ML model was only 0.292%.