Estimates of Stillbirths, Neonatal Mortality, and Medically Vulnerable Live Births in Amhara, Ethiopia

Data on birth outcomes and early mortality are scarce, especially in settings with limited resources. Total births, both stillbirths and live births, are often not counted, yet such data are critical to allocate resources and target interventions to improve survival.

To estimate the prevalence of stillbirths, neonatal deaths, and medically vulnerable phenotypes, such as preterm births, small-for-gestational-age (SGA), large-for-gestational-age (LGA), and low-birth-weight (LBW) births, in a setting where these key indicators remain largely unknown.

This prospective pregnancy cohort study of women and their newborns was conducted between December 12, 2018, and November 5, 2020. The study was conducted in North Shewa Zone, Amhara, Ethiopia. Data were analyzed from July 2021 to May 2022.

Pregnancy status, gestational age, birth weight, and vital status were measured to estimate the prevalence of stillbirths, live births, and medically vulnerable live births (ie, preterm, SGA, LGA, and LBW births). For mortality outcomes, the prevalence of neonatal (overall, early, and late) and perinatal mortality were estimated.

Among the 2801 enrolled women, the median (IQR) age at conception was 26.5 (22.2-31.0) years, and the median (IQR) gestational age at enrollment was 24 (17-31) weeks. Of the 2628 women (93.8%) with outcome data, 101 pregnancies (3.8%) resulted in an early loss (<28 gestational weeks). Among the 2527 remaining pregnant women, there were 2518 births between 28 and less than 46 weeks' gestation; 2459 (97.7%; 95% CI, 97.0%-98.2%) were live births and 59 (2.3%; 95% CI, 1.8%-3.0%) were stillbirths. Many newborns (41.7%) were born preterm, SGA, LGA, or LBW. The estimated prevalence was 15.1% (95% CI, 13.7%-16.6%) for preterm births, 23.1% (95% CI, 21.3%-25.1%) for SGA births, 10.6% (95% CI, 9.3%-12.1%) for LGA births, and 9.4% (95% CI, 8.2%-10.8%) for LBW births. Among live births, the overall prevalence of neonatal mortality was 3.1% (95% CI, 2.5%-3.9%); mortality was higher among preterm births (7.2%; 95% CI, 4.9%-10.4%), LBW births (12.2%; 95% CI, 8.2%-17.7%), and SGA births (4.1%; 95% CI, 2.6%-6.5%). The prevalence of early neonatal mortality was almost twice as high as the prevalence of late neonatal mortality. The perinatal mortality prevalence was 4.3% (95% CI, 3.6%-5.2%), with a 1.2:1 ratio of stillbirths to first-week deaths.

These findings have important implications for newborn health and survival. For policy makers and programmers, accurate data on key indicators of neonatal health provide information for resource allocation and to evaluate progress. For researchers, the findings underlie the importance for further research to develop and deliver interventions that improve health outcomes.