An integrated approach to estimate how much urban afforestation can contribute to move towards carbon neutrality

Urban afforestation is considered a promising nature-climate solution that may contribute to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, since it can increase C-storage and C-sequestration, whilst providing further multiple ecosystem services for citizens. However, the quantification of the CO₂ sequestration capacity that may be provided by an urban forest as well as the capacity to impact the city-level C-balance and offset anthropogenic emissions is a complex issue. Methodological approaches, quantity and quality of information contained in urban tree database, and the level of detail of the planned urban forest can strongly influence the estimation of C-sequestration potential offered by urban forests. In this work, an integrated framework based on emission inventory, tree species/morphology and ecosystem modelling has been proposed for the city of Prato, Italy, a representative medium size European city to: i) evaluate the current C-sequestration capacity of urban trees; ii) upscale such capacity with different afforestation scenarios, iii) compare the sink capacity offered by ecosystems with current and projected anthropogenic emissions. Results indicated that the green areas within the Municipality of Prato can sequester 33.1 ktCO₂ yr^-1 under actual conditions and 51.0 ktCO₂ yr^-1 under the afforestation scenario which maximize the CO₂ sequestration capacity, offsetting the 7.1 % and 11 % of the total emissions (465.8 ktCO₂ yr^-1), respectively. This study proves that, in the various afforestation scenarios tested, the contribution of urban afforestation to the municipality carbon balance is negligible and that carbon neutrality can only be reached by the substantial decarbonization of emission sectors.