Managing basin-wide ecosystem services using the bankruptcy theory.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Management
• Ecosystem Services Assessment
• Climate Change Adaptation

Background:

• Ecosystems provide vital services, but many face 'bankruptcy' where they cannot meet all demands.
• Climate change exacerbates ecosystem service deficits, necessitating robust management strategies.
• The Zarrinehrud river basin in Iran serves as a case study for assessing ecosystem service provision under changing climate conditions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply a novel bankruptcy-based methodology for managing ecosystem services.
• To assess the impact of climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) on ecosystem services in the Zarrinehrud river basin.
• To identify the most effective management strategies for a bankrupt ecosystem.

Main Methods:

• An integrated framework was used to assess regulating, supporting, provisioning, and cultural ecosystem services.
• Aggregated utilities for each ecosystem service were calculated, incorporating stakeholder preferences.
• Six bankruptcy methods (Adjusted Proportional, Constrained Equal Loss, Constrained Equal Award, Piniles, Talmud, Hybrid) were applied to redistribute ecosystem service assets.
• Two Root Mean Square Error-based approaches were developed to select the optimal management scenario.

Main Results:

• The Zarrinehrud river basin was confirmed to be bankrupt in terms of ecosystem services.
• Management scenario 128, integrating all management packages, emerged as the most effective solution across all climate change scenarios.
• The Talmud, Hybrid, and Constrained Equal Loss bankruptcy methods demonstrated superior performance.

Conclusions:

• The developed bankruptcy-based methodology provides a viable framework for managing ecosystem service deficits.
• Proactive management, including improving cropping patterns and water resource allocation, is crucial for ecosystem resilience.
• The study highlights the importance of considering stakeholder values and climate change impacts in ecosystem management.