Assess transmissibility of different influenza subtypes: Based on a SEIABR model

Influenza is a worldwide public health problem which causes a serious economic and health burden. In order to provide a scientific basis for improving the prevention and control level of influenza, using dynamic model to evaluate the infection rates of influenza different subtypes from 2010 to 2019 in China.

This article established SEIABR model based on influenza cases reported by China National Influenza Center from 2010 to 2019. And calculated the transmission rate and R_e by combined the natural birth rate, natural death rate, infectious rate, proportion of asymptomatic patients, proportion of untreated patients, recovery rate and fatality rate.

The average infection rate of influenza was (2.38 ± 0.59) × 10^-10, and influenza A was (2.24 ± 0.51) × 10^-10, influenza B was (2.21 ± 0.68) × 10^-10. And average R_e were 1.60, 1.51, 1.49. In addition, the infection rates of A /H1N1, A/H3N2, B/Yamagata and B/Victoria were (2.47 ± 0.51) × 10^-10, (2.25 ± 0.48) × 10^-10, (2.15 ± 0.61) × 10^-10, and (2.30 ± 0.66) × 10^-10 and average R_e were 1.67, 1.52, 1.44, 1.56.

Between each year, flu transmission capacity had fluctuation. Influenza A was more transmissible than influenza B, and during the major subtypes, influenza A/H1N1 was the most transmissible.