Evening chronotype predicts dropout of physical exercise: a prospective analysis

Eveningness preference to sleep/wake and perform physical/cognitive activities has been associated with worse health outcomes, when compared to morningness preference. Physical activity is one potential mediator that could explain this relationship; however, most of these evidences come from cross-sectional design studies. Our goal was to assess whether chronotype could predict the risk of dropout of physical exercise programs.

We followed 153 newly enrolled volunteers at three different gyms, from both sexes, aged between 18 and 65 years, during 12 weeks. The daily frequency of exercises in the programs was objectively measured (gym's electronic turnstiles). Using questionnaires, we collected data of variables related to demographic characteristics, health, physical activity, sleep, anthropometric and chronobiological parameters (Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire-MEQ). Two multivariate models were created using Cox regression analysis to test the risk of dropout of physical exercise practice. Both models accounted for age, educational level, civil status, membership plan duration, physical exercise practice frequency during week 1 and chronotype (MEQ score and chronotypes).

Model 1 results showed that higher MEQ score was associated with a lower chance of quitting the program (HR = 0.98; CI95% 0.95-1.00; p = 0.046). Considering the chronotypes, E-types showed the highest dropout risk compared to that of M-types (HR = 2.22; CI95% 1.09-4.52; p = 0.027).

Our results suggest that chronotype is another variable to be considered in future studies on promoting PAs in formal environments. Likewise, the practice frequency during week 1 and duration of membership plan also deserve more attention in additional studies.