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Development and Validation of a Nomogram to Predict the Probability of Breast Cancer Pathologic Complete Response
Yijun Li1, Jian Zhang1, Bin Wang1
1Department of Breast Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China.
Background:
The methods used to predict the pathologic complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) have some limitations. In this study, we aimed to develop a nomogram to predict breast cancer pCR after NAC based on convenient and economical multi-system hematological indicators and clinical characteristics.
Materials And Methods:
Patients diagnosed from July 2017 to July 2019 served as the training group (N = 114), and patients diagnosed in from July 2019 to July 2021 served as the validation group (N = 102). A nomogram was developed according to eight indices, including body mass index, platelet distribution width, monocyte count, albumin, cystatin C, phosphorus, hemoglobin, and D-dimer, which were determined by multivariate logistic regression. Internal and external validation curves are used to calibrate the nomogram.
Results:
The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.942 (95% confidence interval 0.892-0.992), and the concordance index indicated that the nomogram had good discrimination. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration curve showed that the model was well-calibrated.
Conclusion:
The nomogram developed in this study can help clinicians accurately predict the possibility of patients achieving the pCR after NAC. This information can be used to decide the most effective treatment strategies for patients.
