Calculating and Comparing the Annualized Relapse Rate and Estimating the Confidence Interval in Relapsing...

Calculating the crude or adjusted annualized relapse rate (ARR) and its confidence interval (CI) is often required in clinical studies to evaluate chronic relapsing diseases, such as multiple sclerosis and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders. However, accurately calculating ARR and estimating the 95% CI requires careful application of statistical approaches and basic familiarity with the exponential family of distributions. When the relapse rate can be regarded as constant over time or by individuals, the crude ARR can be calculated using the person-years method, which divides the number of all observed relapses among all participants by the total follow-up period of the study cohort. If the number of relapses can be modeled by the Poisson distribution, the 95% CI of ARR can be obtained by finding the 2.5% upper and lower critical values of the parameter λ as the mean. Basic familiarity with F-statistics is also required when comparing the ARR between two disease groups. It is necessary to distinguish the observed relapse rate ratio (RR) between two sample groups (sample RR) from the unobserved RR between their originating populations (population RR). The ratio of population RR to sample RR roughly follows the F distribution, with degrees of freedom obtained by doubling the number of observed relapses in the two sample groups. Based on this, a 95% CI of the population RR can be estimated. When the count data of the response variable is overdispersed, the negative binomial distribution would be a better fit than the Poisson. Adjusted ARR and the 95% CI can be obtained by using the generalized linear regression models after selecting appropriate error structures (e.g., Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial) according to the overdispersion and zero-inflation in the response variable.