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Risks to biodiversity from temperature overshoot pathways.

Andreas L S Meyer1, Joanne Bentley1, Romaric C Odoulami1

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Global warming overshoot pathways pose sudden, severe risks to biodiversity. While temperatures may decline, elevated exposure for species lasts much longer, with potentially irreversible impacts, underscoring the need to avoid overshoot.

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Area of Science:

  • Climate science
  • Biodiversity conservation
  • Ecological risk assessment

Background:

  • Temperature overshoot pathways involve exceeding global warming targets (e.g., 1.5°C or 2°C) and subsequent cooling via CO2 removal.
  • Risks to biodiversity from these overshoot pathways are not well understood.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To explore and quantify biodiversity risks associated with temperature overshoot.
  • To analyze the exposure and de-exposure dynamics of species to dangerous temperatures during a 2°C overshoot scenario.

Main Methods:

  • Synthesis of existing knowledge on biodiversity risks.
  • Quantification of temperature exposure and de-exposure for over 30,000 species under a 2°C overshoot scenario.

Main Results:

  • Biodiversity faces sudden climate risks during overshoot, with gradual de-exposure.
  • Peak species exposure coincides with peak warming, but recovery is slow (marine: ~100 years, terrestrial: ~130 years).
  • Some ecological communities may never return to pre-overshoot temperature exposure levels.

Conclusions:

  • Avoiding temperature overshoot is paramount for biodiversity protection.
  • Limiting the magnitude and duration of any overshoot is crucial.
  • Integrated models are needed to assess direct and indirect overshoot impacts, including those from CO2 removal and land-use change.