Risk-Based Cervical Consensus Guidelines: Methods to Determine Management if Less Than 5 Years of Data Are Available

In the 2019 ASCCP Risk-Based Management Consensus Guidelines, clinical management decisions are based on immediate and 5-year cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 3+ risk estimates. However, data for technologies other than human papillomavirus testing and cytology may be limited to clinical trials and observational studies of shorter duration than 5 years. To enable decisions about 1- or 3-year intervals, 3-year CIN 3+ risk equivalents to 5-year CIN 3+ risk thresholds were generated.

We examined screening test result scenarios around the 5-year risk thresholds of 0.15% and 0.55% and calculated the average percent increase in CIN 3+ risk from 3 to 5 years. Using this average increase, we obtained estimates of corresponding risk thresholds at 3 years. We then validated whether use of the 3-year risk threshold would have resulted in equivalent management per the 2019 recommendations.

Around the 5-year CIN 3+ risk threshold of 0.55%, the average increase in risk from 3 to 5 years was 0.16%. Therefore, the equivalent threshold for 3-year risk was estimated as 0.39%. We found no difference in recommendations to return in 1 or 3 years using the 3-year or 5-year risk thresholds in 66 of the 67 scenarios (98.5%) in follow-up in 2019 guidelines.

In this methodological addendum, the Enduring Guidelines Committee adopted the use of the 0.39% 3-year CIN 3+ risk threshold as equivalent of the 0.55% 5-year CIN 3+ risk threshold for technologies with fewer than 5 years of follow-up data. This allows evidence-based guidance for surveillance intervals of 1 or 3 years for new technologies with limited longitudinal data.