Urban modelling and forecasting of landuse using SLEUTH model

Area of Science:

• Geographic Information Science
• Urban and Regional Planning
• Environmental Modeling

Background:

• Urbanization significantly impacts developing smart cities like Prayagraj, India.
• Understanding land use land cover (LULC) dynamics is crucial for sustainable urban development.
• Historical LULC data provides a basis for predicting future urban expansion.

Purpose of the Study:

• To model and predict future urban growth in Prayagraj using the SLEUTH model.
• To analyze the influence of road networks and topography on urban expansion.
• To provide a spatially explicit forecast of land use changes for urban planning.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the SLEUTH (S dalaman, Eng, Li, Environment, Urbanization, Technology, and History) model for landcover modeling.
• Calibrated urban land use change factors using historical LULC data (1990-2020), road networks, and elevation data.
• Employed remote sensing data at 30m resolution for spatially explicit urban growth simulation.

Main Results:

• The built-up area in Prayagraj increased from 40.22 km² (5.10%) in 1990 to 85.89 km² (10.89%) in 2020.
• Predicted built-up area is projected to reach 118.66 km² (14.98%) by 2040, with an annual growth rate of 1.9%.
• The study highlights the significant influence of road gravity and slope resistance on urban expansion patterns.

Conclusions:

• The SLEUTH model effectively simulates urban growth dynamics in developing smart cities.
• Accurate LULC prediction is vital for informed urban planning and resource management.
• Future urban expansion in Prayagraj necessitates strategic planning to mitigate potential challenges.