Lithium replacement dose recommendations using Monte Carlo simulations

Missed medication doses are a common clinical problem, and cause consternation when prescribing lithium because its plasma levels must be kept within a narrow therapeutic window. Therefore, this study set out to determine the potential impact of missed lithium doses on its pharmacokinetics, and to explore the optimal compensatory dosing scheme. This is difficult to determine clinically and in research because of ethical constraints and therefore we modelled the effects using simulations.

Monte Carlo simulations were used to simulate lithium concentrations under different missed dose scenarios. For patients with normal renal function, the optimal replacement dosing scheme was selected based on the lowest percentage of deviation from the full adherence scenario. However, for patients with renal impairment the appropriate dosing schedule was selected based on the lowest number of simulated concentrations above the upper range of 1.2 mEq/L.

The impact of a missed lithium dose depended on its daily dose. The higher the daily dose, the higher the deviation from full adherence. In patients with normal renal function, replacement with a regular dose was most appropriate. But in patients with renal impairment, replacement with a partial dose appeared to be most suitable.

This study has enabled insights into the optimal suitable lithium replacement dosing schemes for patients with normal renal function and renal impairment. These proposed schemes can be used cautiously in clinical practice in conjunction with clinician judgment and can also be used as a basis for future clinical research.