Socioecological vulnerability and the risk of zoonotic disease emergence in Brazil

In developing countries, outbreaks of zoonotic diseases (ZDs) result from intertwined ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic processes that shape conditions for (i) increased contact between vulnerable human population and wildlife in areas undergoing environmental degradation and (ii) the rapid geographic spread of infections across socially vulnerable regions. In Brazil, recent increases in environmental and social vulnerabilities, amplified by economic and political crises, are potential triggers for outbreaks. We discuss Brazilian features that favor outbreaks and show a novel quantitative method for zoonotic risk assessment. Using data on nine ZDs from 2001 to 2019, we found that the most significant causal variables were vegetation cover and city remoteness. Furthermore, 8 of 27 states presented low-level risk of ZD outbreaks. Given the ZD-bushmeat connection, we identified central hunted mammals that should be surveilled to prevent spillover events. The current challenge is to coordinate intersectoral collaboration for effective One Health management in megadiverse countries with high social vulnerability and growing environmental degradation like Brazil.