Violence in the Great Recession

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Sociology
• Economics

Background:

• Economic hardship is linked to increased violence.
• Previous research often uses observational studies with inherent biases.
• Traditional violence surveillance may over-represent certain demographics.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the Great Recession's impact on violence diagnoses.
• To differentiate between explicit and proxy violence diagnoses.
• To overcome limitations of prior observational studies using a quasi-experimental design.

Main Methods:

• Utilized Minnesota hospital data from 2004-2014.
• Employed a difference-in-differences analysis at the county level (n=86).
• Compared changes in violence rates before (2004-2007) and after (2008-2014) the recession in highly versus less affected counties.

Main Results:

• The Great Recession had minimal impact on explicit violence diagnoses.
• Proxy violence diagnoses (child maltreatment, intimate partner violence, elder abuse) increased significantly in more affected counties.
• A greater increase in combined proxy-identified violence was observed in counties more impacted by the recession.

Conclusions:

• Economic downturns may influence violence detection more than actual incidence.
• Proxy violence indicators are sensitive to economic shocks.
• Quasi-experimental designs can reveal nuanced impacts of economic hardship on violence.