The disruption of elective procedures due to COVID-19 in Brazil in 2020

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Health Services Research
• Epidemiology

Background:

• The COVID-19 pandemic led to widespread disruptions in healthcare services globally.
• Elective procedures were frequently suspended to manage resources and prevent viral transmission.
• Understanding the impact on non-urgent medical interventions is crucial for healthcare system recovery.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the volume of elective surgeries and procedures in Brazil's Unified Health System (SUS).
• To estimate the number of procedures that were not performed due to pandemic-related suspensions.
• To determine the healthcare infrastructure (hospital beds) needed to address the backlog of elective procedures.

Main Methods:

• Utilized monthly data from the Unified Health System (SUS) spanning January 2008 to December 2020.
• Employed an interrupted time series analysis to estimate the pandemic's effect on elective procedure volumes.
• Calculated the projected increase in hospital beds required for recovery.

Main Results:

• A 46% reduction in elective procedures was observed over a 9-month period, attributed to COVID-19.
• Approximately 828,429 elective procedures were cancelled (range: 549,921–1,106,936).
• SUS would need an additional 21,362 hospital beds (range: 12,370–36,392) to recover pre-pandemic performance within six months, representing an 8.48% increase.

Conclusions:

• The COVID-19 pandemic significantly reduced elective procedures within the SUS, creating a substantial backlog.
• Addressing this backlog necessitates a considerable expansion of hospital bed capacity.
• Health agencies must implement strategies to manage the increased demand for elective procedures post-pandemic.