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Trend analysis of temperature data using innovative polygon trend analysis and modeling by gene expression

Ali Can Yenice1, Muhammad Yaqub2

  • 1Research Center for Islamic Economics and Finance, Sakarya University, Sakarya, Turkey.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
|June 30, 2022
PubMed
Summary

Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) reveals climate change impacts on Turkey

Keywords:
Climate changeGene expression programmingInnovative polygon trend analysisTemperature

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Climate Science
  • Data Analysis

Background:

  • Climate change significantly impacts global temperatures.
  • Understanding regional temperature trends is crucial for climate change adaptation.
  • Traditional methods may not fully capture complex temperature dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze temperature trends in Turkey using Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA).
  • To evaluate the effectiveness of the gene expression programming (GEP) model for short-term temperature prediction.
  • To provide insights for climate change decision-making.

Main Methods:

  • Application of Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) to monthly temperature data from six Turkish stations.
  • Utilizing gene expression programming (GEP) for predictive modeling of monthly average temperatures.
  • Statistical validation using coefficient of determination (R-Sq).

Main Results:

  • IPTA identified varying monthly temperature trends (increasing, decreasing, no trend) across the six stations.
  • The GEP model demonstrated high accuracy in predicting short-term monthly average temperatures (R-Sq ≥ 0.90).
  • Significant trends were observed, with most months showing either increasing or decreasing temperatures.

Conclusions:

  • IPTA is an effective tool for understanding complex temperature trends and climate change effects.
  • The GEP model provides reliable short-term temperature predictions.
  • Findings support informed decision-making for climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies.