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Pedigree-based Bayesian modelling of radiocarbon dates.

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Archaeogenetics combined with radiocarbon dating and Bayesian modeling significantly improves age determination for past societies. This integration refines chronological sequencing and resolves dating ambiguities, enhancing archaeological interpretation.

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Area of Science:

  • Archaeogenetics
  • Radiocarbon Dating
  • Bayesian Modeling

Background:

  • Archaeogenetic analysis has transformed understanding of past societies' mobility, relatedness, and health.
  • Integrating archaeogenetic insights on biological relatedness with radiocarbon dating offers chronological sequencing.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To demonstrate the potential of combining relative chronological information with absolute radiocarbon dates via Bayesian interpretation.
  • To improve age determinations by integrating archaeogenetic data with radiocarbon dating.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized artificial pedigrees with simulated radiocarbon dates.
  • Employed Bayesian interpretation to combine relationship information with radiocarbon dates.
  • Analyzed Early Bronze Age Southern Germany case studies with biological pedigrees.

Main Results:

  • Combining relationship information with radiocarbon dates improved age determination by 20-50%.
  • Calibrated age ranges became more constrained compared to independent calibration.
  • Bayesian modeling resolved ambiguities in radiocarbon dates caused by calibration curve inversions.

Conclusions:

  • Integrating archaeogenetic and radiocarbon data through Bayesian modeling enhances chronological precision.
  • Improved age determinations are more applicable for archaeological interpretation and individual chronological placement.
  • The quality of pedigree information influences the precision of Bayesian models for radiocarbon dates.