Multi-ancestry Mendelian randomization of omics traits revealing drug targets of COVID-19 severity

Recent omic studies prioritised several drug targets associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity. However, little evidence was provided to systematically estimate the effect of drug targets on COVID-19 severity in multiple ancestries.

In this study, we applied Mendelian randomization (MR) and colocalization approaches to understand the putative causal effects of 16,059 transcripts and 1608 proteins on COVID-19 severity in European and effects of 610 proteins on COVID-19 severity in African ancestry. We further integrated genetics, clinical and literature evidence to prioritise drug targets. Additional sensitivity analyses including multi-trait colocalization and phenome-wide MR were conducted to test for MR assumptions.

MR and colocalization prioritized four protein targets, FCRL3, ICAM5, ENTPD5 and OAS1 that showed effect on COVID-19 severity in European ancestry. One protein target, SERPINA1 showed a stronger effect in African ancestry but much weaker effect in European ancestry (odds ratio [OR] in Africans=0.369, 95%CI=0.203 to 0.668, P = 9.96 × 10^-4; OR in Europeans=1.021, 95%CI=0.901 to 1.157, P = 0.745), which suggested that increased level of SERPINA1 will reduce COVID-19 risk in African ancestry. One protein, ICAM1 showed suggestive effect on COVID-19 severity in both ancestries (OR in Europeans=1.152, 95%CI=1.063 to 1.249, P = 5.94 × 10^-4; OR in Africans=1.481, 95%CI=1.008 to 2.176; P = 0.045). The OAS1, SERPINA1 and ICAM1 effects were replicated using updated COVID-19 severity data in the two ancestries respectively, where alternative splicing events in OAS1 and ICAM1 also showed marginal effects on COVID-19 severity in Europeans. The phenome-wide MR of the prioritised targets on 622 complex traits provided information on potential beneficial effects on other diseases and suggested little evidence of adverse effects on major complications.

Our study identified six proteins as showing putative causal effects on COVID-19 severity. OAS1 and SERPINA1 were targets of existing drugs in trials as potential COVID-19 treatments. ICAM1, ICAM5 and FCRL3 are related to the immune system. Across the six targets, OAS1 has no reliable instrument in African ancestry; SERPINA1, FCRL3, ICAM5 and ENTPD5 showed a different level of putative causal evidence in European and African ancestries, which highlights the importance of more powerful ancestry-specific GWAS and value of multi-ancestry MR in informing the effects of drug targets on COVID-19 across different populations. This study provides a first step towards clinical investigation of beneficial and adverse effects of COVID-19 drug targets.

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