Individual variability in foraging success of a marine predator informs predator management

The complexities of trophic dynamics complicate the management of predator populations. Targeted culling campaigns are one management strategy meant to control predation for the benefit of the prey population. In these campaigns, individual predators are often considered "rogue" based on visitation rates to the site of concern. This definition assumes that all predators impact prey equally. However, individual variability in foraging success may compromise this assumption. To examine this hypothesis, we studied harbor seals preying on adult salmonids during the 2014-2019 fall runs in Whatcom Creek, Bellingham, Washington, USA, and recorded visitation rate and foraging success of individual seals from photographs and field observations. We then used Generalized Linear Mixed-Effects Models to model individual foraging success. Models including harbor seal identity better explained foraging success than models based on visitation rate alone. We concluded that considering intraspecific variability and classifying "rogue individuals" based on foraging success is a more accurate protocol for managing predator populations than relying solely on visitation rate of the predators.