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Related Experiment Video

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Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
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Modelling ethnogenesis.

Alexey Piunovskiy1, Bakhtier Vasiev1

  • 1Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Liverpool, L69 7ZL, UK.

Bio Systems
|July 2, 2022
PubMed
Summary

This study models polity evolution using mathematical equations, revealing boom-and-bust cycles as non-linear excitation processes. The cliodynamics framework helps understand historical societal dynamics and interactions between polities.

Area of Science:

  • Cliodynamics
  • Mathematical Biology
  • Historical Dynamics

Background:

  • Understanding the rise and fall of polities is a key challenge in contemporary history.
  • Societal lifecycles often exhibit universal boom-and-bust dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Introduce a mathematical model for evolving polities based on psycho-ethic group interactions.
  • Model polity evolution and interactions using mathematical frameworks.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a mathematical model using ordinary differential equations.
  • Applied deterministic and stochastic versions of the model.
  • Utilized analytical methods and numerical integration (MATLAB simulation).

Main Results:

Keywords:
Dynamical systemEthnogenesisExcitationPopulation dynamics

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  • Modeled polity rise and fall as an excitation process, a non-linear phenomenon.
  • Fitted the model to the timescale of civilization's lifespan.
  • Expanded the model to analyze interactions between two evolving polities.

Conclusions:

  • The mathematical model provides a framework for understanding polity dynamics.
  • Cliodynamics offers tools to analyze historical societal processes.
  • The model captures the complex interactions driving polity evolution and decline.