Improving the system power of complex kinship analysis by combining multiple systems

Complex kinship analysis is a critical issue in forensic genetics. To address this issue, 55 STRs and 94 SNPs collected from four commercial forensic typing kits [three kits were based on a capillary electrophoresis (CE) platform and one was based on a next-generation sequencing (NGS) platform] were employed to test the system power for 2nd-degree and 3rd-degree kinship analysis. To measure the kinship index in related individuals, likelihood ratios (LRs) were calculated based on length and sequence polymorphism information (LR_length and LR_sequence, respectively) from simulation as well as true pedigree samples. LRs calculated based on sequence information are generally higher than those based on length information. The sensitivity, specificity, and effectiveness to distinguish the 2nd- and 3rd-degree kinship were estimated from four marker sets with different numbers of markers. As expected, system power for kinship analysis improved by increasing the number of markers and using LR_sequence, instead of LR_length. Furthermore, the system power based on 55 STRs from the CE platform is equal to the 40 STRs and 94 SNPs from one CE kit and the kit based on NGS platform for both 2nd-degree and 3rd-degree kinship analysis. For discrimination of 2nd-degree kinship, the system effectiveness is 86.63% with an error ratio < 0.01 using the 55 STRs from the CE platform. Using sequence information from the 55 STRs and 94 SNPs, the system effectiveness is 94.43%, with an error ratio < 0.001 for 2nd-degree kinship analysis and 64.34% with an error ratio < 0.05 for 3rd-degree kinship analysis, indicating that these markers are powerful for 2nd-degree kinship analysis and can be used for 3rd-degree kinship analysis.