Updated inventory and projections for Canada's ophthalmology workforce

Area of Science:

• Ophthalmology
• Public Health
• Health Workforce Planning

Background:

• The Canadian ophthalmology workforce has specific demographic characteristics and distribution patterns.
• Understanding current supply and projecting future trends are crucial for healthcare planning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To provide an updated analysis of the Canadian ophthalmology workforce.
• To forecast future ophthalmologist supply in relation to population changes.

Main Methods:

• Cross-sectional study utilizing data from the Canadian Institute for Health Information and Canadian Post-MD Education Registry.
• Analysis of ophthalmologist supply and demographics from 1968 to 2019.
• Population projections from Statistics Canada were used to predict future workforce ratios.

Main Results:

• In 2020, Canada had 1323 ophthalmologists (3.48 per 100,000 population), with 27.3% female and 20.9% aged ≥65.
• Provincial ophthalmologist distribution varied significantly.
• Projections indicate a potential decrease in ophthalmologists per 100,000 population by 2068, especially for the ≥65 age group.

Conclusions:

• The ratio of ophthalmologists to the elderly population is predicted to decline, posing a risk to vision care.
• A slight increase in ophthalmology residency positions is suggested to address potential workforce shortages.