An Evolutionary Model of "Sexual Conflict" Over Women's Age at Marriage: Implications for Child Mortality and...

Early women's marriage is associated with adverse outcomes for mothers and their offspring, including reduced human capital and increased child undernutrition and mortality. Despite preventive efforts, it remains common in many populations and is often favored by cultural norms. A key question is why it remains common, given such penalties. Using an evolutionary perspective, a simple mathematical model was developed to explore women's optimal marriage age under different circumstances, if the sole aim were to maximize maternal or paternal lifetime reproductive fitness (surviving offspring).

The model was based on several assumptions, supported by empirical evidence, regarding relationships between women's marital age and parental and offspring outcomes. It assumes that later marriage promotes women's autonomy, enhancing control over fertility and childcare, but increases paternity uncertainty. Given these assumptions, optimal marriage ages for maximizing maternal and paternal fitness were calculated. The basic model was then used to simulate environmental changes or public health interventions, including shifts in child mortality, suppression of women's autonomy, or promoting women's contraception or education.

In the basic model, paternal fitness is maximized at lower women's marriage age than is maternal fitness, with the paternal optimum worsening child undernutrition and mortality. A family planning intervention delays marriage age and reduces child mortality and undernutrition, at a cost to paternal but not maternal fitness. Reductions in child mortality favor earlier marriage but increase child undernutrition, whereas ecological shocks that increase child mortality favor later marriage but reduce fitness of both parents. An education intervention favors later marriage and reduces child mortality and undernutrition, but at a cost to paternal fitness. Efforts to suppress maternal autonomy substantially increase fitness of both parents, but only if other members of the household provide compensatory childcare.

Early women's marriage maximizes paternal fitness despite relatively high child mortality and undernutrition, by increasing fertility and reducing paternity uncertainty. This tension between the sexes over the optimal marriage age is sensitive to ecological stresses or interventions. Education interventions seem most likely to improve maternal and child outcomes, but may be resisted by males and their kin as they may reduce paternal fitness.