Modeling the impact of COVID-19 on future tuberculosis burden
Mario Tovar1,2, Alberto Aleta3, Joaquín Sanz1,2
1Institute for Biocomputation and Physics of Complex Systems (BIFI), University of Zaragoza, 50009 Zaragoza, Spain.
Communications Medicine
|July 5, 2022
Summary
The COVID-19 pandemic may cause millions of excess tuberculosis deaths globally due to disrupted diagnosis and treatment. Restoring and enhancing tuberculosis diagnostic capabilities can prevent most of this excess mortality.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Infectious Disease Modeling
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic has strained global healthcare systems, leading to disruptions in routine health services.
- Non-pharmaceutical interventions during the pandemic have had unintended consequences on the burden of other diseases.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model the impact of COVID-19-associated disruptions on tuberculosis (TB) incidence and mortality.
- To quantify the potential excess deaths due to reduced TB diagnosis and treatment adherence.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a data-driven epidemiological model to simulate TB transmission dynamics.
- Assessed the effects of sustained COVID-19-related changes in TB notification rates.
Main Results:
- Projected significant excess TB deaths in India (228k), Indonesia (111k), Pakistan (27k), and Kenya (12k) if diagnostic disruptions persist.
- Attributed these excess deaths to reduced diagnosis and treatment adherence linked to the pandemic.
Conclusions:
- Reversing excess TB mortality is achievable by increasing diagnostic capabilities to 50% within 2-4 years.
- Implementing enhanced TB diagnostic strategies can mitigate the pandemic's long-term impact on the tuberculosis epidemic.
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