Genetic structure of the Utah Mormons: isonymy analysis

Isonymy analysis is reported for a sample of 188,895 marriages extracted from the Utah Genealogical Database. Inbreeding rates estimated by isonymy are low, ranging from 0.005 for the earliest marriage cohort (1800-1809) to 0.0008 in the most recent cohort (1950-1959). The inbreeding values decrease considerably through time, but they are consistently higher than inbreeding values estimated from pedigrees. Several explanations are offered for this, including polyphyletism of surnames and the presence of Scandinavian patronyms in this population. Random isonymy between subdivisions is also compared with random kinship estimated from migration matrices. In terms of within-subdivision kinship, the two approaches yield similar results. However, the results are quite dissimilar for between-subdivision kinship. This reflects the recent and nonrandom settlement of Utah by different ethnic groups with different surname distributions. In later time periods, the correlations between the two types of kinship estimates increase, showing that migration patterns (which are strongly determined by geographic distance) exert an increasing influence on the distribution of surnames. Logistic regression is performed on a subset of marriages (n = 88,202), using isonymous vs. nonisonymous marriage as the dependent variable. The independent variables are year of marriage, geographic distance between husband's and wife's birthplaces, endogamous vs. exogamous marriage, and population sizes of husband's and wife's birthplaces. Year of marriage and geographic distance are shown to be significant independent predictors of isonymous marriage.