Predictive factors of prolonged postoperative length of stay after anatomic pulmonary resection

The objective of this study is to create a predictive model of prolonged postoperative length of stay (PLOS) in patients undergoing anatomic lung resection, to validate it in an external series and to evaluate the influence of PLOS on readmission and 90-day mortality.

All patients registered in the GEVATS database discharged after the intervention were included. We define PLOS as the postoperative stay in days above the 75th percentile of stay for all patients in the series. A univariate and multivariate analysis was performed using logistic regression and the model was validated in an external cohort. The possible association between PLOS and readmission and mortality at 90 days was analyzed.

3473 patients were included in the study. The median postoperative stay was 5 days (IQR: 4-7). 815 patients had PLOS (≥8 days), of which 79.9% had postoperative complications. The final model included as variables: age, BMI, male sex, ppoFEV1%, ppoDLCO% and thoracotomy; the AUC in the referral series was 0.684 (95% CI: 0.661-0.706) and in the validation series was 0.73 (95% CI: 0.681-0.78). A significant association was found between PLOS and readmission (p < .000) and 90-day mortality (p < .000).

The variables age, BMI, male sex, ppoFEV1%, ppoDLCO% and thoracotomy affect PLOS. PLOS is associated with an increased risk of readmission and 90-day mortality. 20% of PLOS are not related to the occurrence of postoperative complications.