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Heterogeneous adaptive behavioral responses may increase epidemic burden.
Baltazar Espinoza1, Samarth Swarup2, Christopher L Barrett2
1Network Systems Science and Advanced Computing Division, Biocomplexity Institute, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, 22904, USA. baltazar.espinoza@virginia.edu.
Scientific Reports
|July 5, 2022
Summary
Individual behavior significantly impacts epidemic spread. Heterogeneous risk perceptions can worsen epidemic outcomes, highlighting the need for tailored non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) based on population structure.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Behavioral Economics
Background:
- Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are primary epidemic control tools.
- The interplay between NPIs, individual behavior, and economic factors is complex and not fully understood.
- Epidemics are adaptive systems driven by individual decisions and infection risk.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of heterogeneous behavioral responses on epidemic burden.
- To model the influence of risk perception on individual decision-making during epidemics.
- To analyze how population structure affects epidemic outcomes under varying behavioral responses.
Main Methods:
- Formulation of a two-risk-group mathematical model.
- Incorporation of individual behavioral decisions driven by risk perceptions.
- Analysis of epidemic dynamics in a structured population with heterogeneous behaviors.
Main Results:
- A trade-off exists between risk-evading and risk-taking behaviors, influencing epidemic size.
- Privately optimal behaviors in structured populations can increase the final epidemic size compared to homogeneous behavior.
- Uncertainty in health state information can exacerbate epidemic outcomes, dependent on population risk composition.
- Optimal planning horizons for minimizing epidemic size are identified, contingent on population structure.
Conclusions:
- Heterogeneous behavioral responses and risk perceptions significantly influence epidemic trajectories.
- Mathematical modeling provides insights into optimizing NPI strategies by considering individual behavior and population structure.
- Understanding individual decision-making under uncertainty is crucial for effective epidemic control.
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