Disentangling drivers of air pollutant and health risk changes during the COVID-19 lockdown in China

The COVID-19 restrictions in 2020 have led to distinct variations in NO₂ and O₃ concentrations in China. Here, the different drivers of anthropogenic emission changes, including the effects of the Chinese New Year (CNY), China's 2018-2020 Clean Air Plan (CAP), and the COVID-19 lockdown and their impact on NO₂ and O₃ are isolated by using a combined model-measurement approach. In addition, the contribution of prevailing meteorological conditions to the concentration changes was evaluated by applying a machine-learning method. The resulting impact on the multi-pollutant Health-based Air Quality Index (HAQI) is quantified. The results show that the CNY reduces NO₂ concentrations on average by 26.7% each year, while the COVID-lockdown measures have led to an additional 11.6% reduction in 2020, and the CAP over 2018-2020 to a reduction in NO₂ by 15.7%. On the other hand, meteorological conditions from 23 January to March 7, 2020 led to increase in NO₂ of 7.8%. Neglecting the CAP and meteorological drivers thus leads to an overestimate and underestimate of the effect of the COVID-lockdown on NO₂ reductions, respectively. For O₃ the opposite behavior is found, with changes of +23.3%, +21.0%, +4.9%, and -0.9% for CNY, COVID-lockdown, CAP, and meteorology effects, respectively. The total effects of these drivers show a drastic reduction in multi-air pollutant-related health risk across China, with meteorology affecting particularly the Northeast of China adversely. Importantly, the CAP's contribution highlights the effectiveness of the Chinese government's air-quality regulations on NO₂ reduction.