Factors linked to hepatocellular carcinoma development beyond 10 years after viral eradication in patients with...

The risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients whose duration of sustained virological response (SVR) is over 10 years are not fully understood. We compared the incidence of HCC development within and beyond 10 years after SVR. A total of 1384 patients who achieved SVR (714, interferon-based therapy; 670, direct-acting antiviral therapy) were enrolled. Factors associated with HCC development were analysed within and beyond 10 years after SVR by Cox proportional hazards models. The annual incidence rates of HCC development were 0.568% within 10 years after SVR and 0.190% beyond 10 years, and there was a significant difference in the incidence of HCC development between the 2 periods (p = 0.0242, log-rank test). Male gender (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.930; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.508-5.693, p = 0.0015), fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score > 3.25 (aHR 4.364; 95%CI 2.206-8.633, p < 0.0001) and alpha-fetoprotein ≥5.0 ng/ml (aHR 2.381; 95%CI 1.325-4.280, p = 0.0037) were independently associated with HCC development within 10 years after SVR. Male gender (aHR 4.702; 95%CI 1.366-16.190, p = 0.0141), presence of diabetes mellitus (aHR 2.933; 95%CI 1.240-6.935, p = 0.0143) and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) ≥ 56 U/l (aHR 4.157; 95%CI 1.400-12.350, p = 0.0103) were independently associated with HCC development beyond 10 years after SVR. The incidence of HCC development beyond 10 years after SVR was very low, and the associated factors were mainly extrahepatic, including DM and elevated GGT. Annual routine check-ups with abdominal ultrasound may be sufficient for such patients. (242 words).