Independent Validation of a Risk Stratification Model Predicting Survival in Patients With Metastatic...

The aim of this study was to analyze the survival predictions obtained from an online nomogram, originally developed in two US patient cohorts with metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer, because clinical practice and survival outcomes may vary on an international level.

A retrospective single-institution study of 197 patients, managed according to Norwegian guidelines, was performed. Model-predicted survival was assessed online and compared to observed survival.

The median overall survival was 32.7 months. The nomogram predicted 3-year survival probabilities of 3-72% and 5-year probabilities of 0-54% in individual patients. Regarding 3-year prediction, the median was 47% (observed 3-year survival: 45%). The corresponding 5-year figures were 30% (nomogram) and 25% (observed). In univariate Cox regression, predicted 3-year and 5-year likelihood of survival were associated with observed survival of the study population (both p<0.001).

The survival predictions from the US nomogram were correlated with observed survival in this Norwegian validation study.