Rapid Inference of Nitrogen Oxide Emissions Based on a Top-Down Method with a Physically Informed Variational...

Accurate timely estimation of emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO) is a prerequisite for designing an effective strategy for reducing O₃ and PM_2.5 pollution. The satellite-based top-down method can provide near-real-time constraints on emissions; however, its efficiency is largely limited by efforts in dealing with the complex emission-concentration response. Here, we propose a novel machine-learning-based method using a physically informed variational autoencoder (VAE) emission predictor to infer NO emissions from satellite-retrieved surface NO₂ concentrations. The computational burden can be significantly reduced with the help of a neural network trained with a chemical transport model, allowing the VAE emission predictor to provide a timely estimation of posterior emissions based on the satellite-retrieved surface NO₂ concentration. The VAE emission predictor successfully corrected the underestimation of NO emissions in rural areas and the overestimation in urban areas, resulting in smaller normalized mean biases (reduced from -0.8 to -0.4) and larger R² values (increased from 0.4 to 0.7). The interpretability of the VAE emission predictor was investigated using sensitivity analysis by modulating each feature, indicating that NO₂ concentration and planetary boundary layer (PBL) height are important for estimating NO emissions, which is consistent with our common knowledge. The advantages of the VAE emission predictor in efficiency, flexibility, and accuracy demonstrate its great potential in estimating the latest emissions and evaluating the control effectiveness from observations.