Fertility decline in the United States, 1850-1930: New Evidence from Complete-Count Datasets

Between 1835 and 1935, total fertility in the United States fell from 7.0 to 2.1. New IPUMS complete-count microdata databases of the 1850, 1880, 1910, and 1930 U. S. censuses allow us to study the fertility decline in more detail than previously possible. We construct comprehensive models of couples' fertility incorporating a wide variety of economic, social, cultural and familial factors, including measures of parental religiosity and kin availability outside of the household. The results indicate that while shifts in the occupational structure and increasing urbanization of the population provide the most consistent and substantive contribution to fertility decline over the period, cultural and religious attitudes - as proxied by parents' nativities and child naming practices - played a major role in couples' childbearing decisions.