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Fertility decline in the United States, 1850-1930: New Evidence from Complete-Count Datasets.

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Summary

US fertility rates declined significantly between 1835 and 1935. Economic and urbanization shifts were key drivers, alongside cultural and religious factors influencing family size decisions.

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Economic History
  • Sociology

Background:

  • Total fertility in the United States dramatically decreased from 7.0 to 2.1 between 1835 and 1935.
  • Studying this fertility decline historically has been limited by data availability.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the detailed factors contributing to the fertility decline in the U.S. from 1835 to 1935.
  • To model couples' fertility decisions by incorporating economic, social, cultural, and familial variables.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized new IPUMS complete-count microdata from the 1850, 1880, 1910, and 1930 U.S. censuses.
  • Constructed comprehensive fertility models for couples.
  • Included measures of parental religiosity and kin availability.

Main Results:

  • Shifts in occupational structure and increasing urbanization were consistent, substantive contributors to fertility decline.
  • Cultural and religious attitudes, indicated by parental nativities and child naming practices, significantly influenced childbearing decisions.

Conclusions:

  • The U.S. fertility decline was a complex phenomenon driven by both structural economic changes and deeply ingrained cultural/religious beliefs.
  • New census microdata enables more granular analysis of historical demographic shifts.