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Temporal evolution of threshold temperatures for extremely cold days in Spain
J A López-Bueno1, J Díaz2, M A Navas2
1Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain.
The Science of the Total Environment
|July 8, 2022
Summary
Extremely cold days (ECD) are decreasing as minimum daily temperatures slowly rise while threshold temperatures remain constant. This study analyzed 36 years of winter temperature data across Spain.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climatology
- Public Health
Background:
- Research on heat waves is extensive, but temporal evolution of threshold temperatures for extremely cold days (ECD) remains understudied.
- It is unknown if threshold temperatures for ECD have risen faster than minimum daily temperatures (Tmin).
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the temporal evolution of minimum daily temperature (Tmin) in Spanish provinces.
- To compare the Tmin evolution with the temporal evolution of threshold temperatures for ECD.
Main Methods:
- Ecological, retrospective time series study using daily winter temperature observations (1983-2018) from 10 Spanish provinces.
- Determined threshold temperatures (Tthreshold) using daily mortality data and Tmin dispersion diagrams.
- Fitted linear models to assess temporal trends of Tmin and Tthreshold.
Main Results:
- Minimum daily temperatures (Tmin) increased by 0.2°C/decade during winter months.
- Threshold temperatures (Tthreshold) remained nearly constant, increasing by 0.1°C/decade.
- Observed trends for cold extremes are less pronounced than those for heat extremes.
Conclusions:
- Slow increase in Tmin and constant Tthreshold suggest a decrease in extremely cold days (ECD) in Spain.
- Findings highlight a contrasting trend compared to heat wave research.
- The study provides insights into climate change impacts on cold-related risks.
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