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Area of Science:

  • Macroevolutionary biology
  • Eco-evolutionary dynamics
  • Biogeography

Background:

  • Global biodiversity patterns are linked to environmental energy, but the underlying evolutionary mechanisms are not fully understood.
  • The evolutionary speed hypothesis posits that environmental kinetic energy influences speciation rates via temperature or life history.
  • Testing this hypothesis requires integrating ecological and evolutionary processes over geological timescales.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To test whether evolutionary speed, specifically temperature-dependent speciation, explains the relationship between environmental energy and biodiversity.
  • To investigate the roles of temperature and life history in shaping macroevolutionary diversification.
  • To compare process-based simulation modeling with statistical inference for understanding biodiversity patterns.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a spatially explicit eco-evolutionary simulation model to simulate tetrapod diversification over 65 million years.
  • Modeled four scenarios: speciation rates dependent on temperature (M1), life history (M2), both (M3), or neither (M0).
  • Employed supervised machine learning for model selection to compare simulated data with empirical biodiversity patterns.

Main Results:

  • The model with temperature-dependent speciation rates (M1) showed the strongest support across multidimensional biodiversity patterns.
  • Process-based modeling revealed a significant role for temperature in driving speciation, contrasting with some statistical findings.
  • Environmental energy, particularly temperature, is demonstrated as a fundamental driver of biodiversity evolution over deep time.

Conclusions:

  • Temperature-dependent evolutionary rates are a key mechanism explaining the link between environmental energy and global biodiversity.
  • Eco-evolutionary simulation models provide powerful insights into macroevolutionary processes that may be missed by statistical analyses alone.
  • Environmental energy has played a critical role in shaping the diversification of life throughout Earth's history.