A Predictive Web-Based Nomogram for Elderly Patients Newly Diagnosed as Uveal Melanoma: A Population-Based Study

Uveal melanoma (UM) is the most frequent primary intraocular tumor in adults. This study aims to develop a nomogram and an individualized web-based calculator to predict the overall survival (OS) of elderly patients with UM.

Patients aged more than 60 years and diagnosed with UM were derived from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database during 2004-2015. The selected patients were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. In the training cohort, the univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were carried out to determine the independent prognostic factors, and the predictors were integrated to establish a nomogram for predicting the 1-, 2-, and 3-year OS of elderly patients with UM. The discrimination of the nomogram was validated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the area under the curve (AUC). The clinical practicability and accuracy of the nomogram were evaluated by the calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA). A web-based survival calculator was then constructed using a fitted survival prediction model (https://yuexinupup.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/).

A total of 1,427 patients with UM were included in this study. Age, T stage, N stage, M stage, marital status, sex, and radiotherapy (RT) were identified as independent prognostic factors. Based on the abovementioned factors, the nomogram was then constructed. The AUC values of the nomogram predicting 1-, 2-, and 3-year OS were 0.841, 0.801, and 0.768 in the training cohort, and 0.745, 0.717, and 0.710 in the validation cohort, respectively. The calibration curves and DCA also indicated the good performance of the predictive model.

This study established and validated a novel nomogram risk stratification model and a web-based survival rate calculator that can dynamically predict the long-term OS for elderly patients with UM.