A Predictive Web-Based Nomogram for Elderly Patients Newly Diagnosed as Uveal Melanoma: A Population-Based Study

Area of Science:

• Ophthalmology
• Oncology
• Biostatistics

Background:

• Uveal melanoma (UM) is the most common primary intraocular tumor in adults.
• Accurate prognostication is crucial for managing elderly UM patients.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a nomogram and an individualized web-based calculator.
• To predict the overall survival (OS) for elderly patients diagnosed with UM.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (2004-2015).
• Employed univariate and multivariate Cox analyses to identify prognostic factors.
• Constructed a nomogram and validated its performance using ROC curves, AUC, calibration curves, and DCA.
• Developed a web-based survival calculator for dynamic OS prediction.

Main Results:

• Identified age, T stage, N stage, M stage, marital status, sex, and radiotherapy (RT) as independent prognostic factors.
• The nomogram demonstrated good predictive accuracy with AUC values ranging from 0.710 to 0.841 across cohorts and time points.
• Calibration curves and DCA confirmed the model's clinical utility and accuracy.

Conclusions:

• A novel nomogram and web-based calculator were successfully developed and validated.
• These tools enable dynamic, individualized prediction of long-term OS for elderly UM patients.
• The model aids in risk stratification and personalized treatment strategies for uveal melanoma.