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Trading Kuznets curve: empirical analysis for China
Ercan Yasar1, Güray Akalin1, Sinan Erdogan2
1Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Dumlupinar University, 43100 Kutahya, Türkiye.
Empirica
|July 12, 2022
Summary
China's export growth shows an inverted U-shaped relationship with trading partner income, validating the trading Kuznets curve (TKC) hypothesis. Renminbi (RMB) appreciation negatively impacts Chinese exports.
Area of Science:
- International Trade
- Econometrics
- Economic Development
Background:
- China's export dynamics have seen significant growth over two decades.
- Existing literature often overlooks the nuanced relationship between export growth and partner country income levels.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the quadratic relationship between China's real exports and trading partner income.
- To test the validity of the trading Kuznets curve (TKC) hypothesis for China's trade patterns.
- To analyze the impact of Renminbi (RMB) appreciation on Chinese exports.
Main Methods:
- Utilized second-generation econometric analysis techniques.
- Examined data from 154 partner countries between 1996 and 2019.
- Confirmed cross-section dependence and heterogeneous slopes in the panel data.
Main Results:
- A positive impact of partner countries' GDP per capita on China's exports was observed.
- A negative impact of the quadratic term of GDP per capita suggests an inverted U-shaped relationship.
- Renminbi (RMB) appreciation was found to have a statistically significant negative effect on exports.
Conclusions:
- The study validates the trading Kuznets curve (TKC) hypothesis, indicating an inverted U-shaped relationship between China's exports and partner income.
- Policy recommendations include leveraging the TKC hypothesis for export strategies and stabilizing the RMB's value.
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